Saturday, July 19, 2008

Chances Are

MacGyver's mom celebrated her 74th birthday today. True to form, some of the grandchildren, including MyGirl and RD played the piano for her. GI was supposed to play the guitar for her but he managed to skip performing by hanging out with his older cousins. He and three of his other cousins played cards ... AWAY from the piano and FAR from the direct line of sight of the older relatives.

The four of them were playing Texas Hold 'Em poker but I say GI and his oldest cousin Manong were actually playing chance poker. I say 'chance' because they weren't even looking at their cards as they drew or dropped, bid or folded. Apparently there were several reasons behind this. (1) They thought that looking at their cards would bring them bad luck. (2) They figured not looking at their cards would dampen their disappointment if they didn't get the card they needed and consequently heighten their elation over getting what they did. (3) They were able to maximize their POKER faces if they were clueless about their hand.

This is how their game went. Someone shuffled the cards, then everyone was dealt two cards. Three cards were placed face up in the middle. After which there would be a round of betting or folding. This would go on until there were five cards face up in the middle at which point those who are left in the game would show what is in their hands.

There was one particular instance when GI's cousins were left awestruck at his luck. As with the previous hands, GI and Manong didn't know what was in their hands. When it was time for the cards to be shown, there was a 6, 8, 9 and two other cards in the middle.

GI declared, "I need a five and a seven."

He then turned over the cards in his hand.

Lo and behold ... a 5 and a 7.

GI won that round!

___________________________________________________________________________
Statistics Lessons with GI (Written, edited and posted by GI)

First, you must count the cards that are already in the hands of the other people. (6)
Next, you must count the number of cards that are in the pool. (5)
Add these two numbers and then subtract them from 52.
Thus getting the difference of 41.
This will be your denominator when multiplying the odds in getting these cards.


1/41 (Probability of getting a 7)
X
1/40 (Probability of getting a 5)

Why did I divide it by 40, you ask? It's because there are ONLY 40 CARDS LEFT AFTER YOU GET ONE.

Using my trusty calculator, there is a 1/1640 chance of getting these two cards in two dealings.

No comments: